Archive for February, 2005
Posted by joshua on February 28, 2005 at 10:12 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
The new Department of State human rights report on North Korea is here. Given the paucity of information, it’s a running year-by-year tally, noting changes when they have occurred, which are seldom much for the better.
One significant stat is that the State Department believes there are now no more than 30-50,000 North Koreans in China, and that this is at least partially the result of a Chinese crackdown. It could also be true that the estimate of 300,000 was inflated, but it’s also possible that a large numbers have been sent back, driven underground to where they’re not counted, or forced to flee back across the border before they were caught.
Posted by Joshua Stanton on February 28, 2005 at 6:50 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Sanctions Update: Technically, they’re not supposed to be (1) sanctions (2) against North Korea, but everyone knows they are both of the above. The BBC reports on Japan’s new shipping regulations, which took effect today.
Posted by joshua on February 28, 2005 at 1:50 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Sanctions Update: Technically, they’re not supposed to be (1) sanctions (2) against North Korea, but everyone knows they are both of the above. The BBC reports on Japan’s new shipping regulations, which took effect today.
Posted by Joshua Stanton on February 28, 2005 at 11:57 am · Filed under Uncategorized
As linked below, a North Korean has been arrested in China for murdering three people in Seoul in 2003. I don’t know whether the man is guilty, of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised that some North Koreans turn to crime, given the fact that North Korea is a society that inculcates its citizens with violence and blurs the moral absolutes that protect individual rights. Given that a certain percentage of human beings are inherently evil, I suppose the conditioning will stick in those cases.
What’s ironic is that because South Korea is now doing everything it can to keep defectors out, this defector may have found the best remaining way a North Korean can get into South Korea anymore–extradition. If this man had a twin brother, and the twin was the very paragon of virtue, paternal love, and hard work, he’d be facing a one-way ticket to torture, starvation, disease, and death for no greater crime than being born North Korean. His evil twin–presuming he’s fortunate enough to be convicted of triple murder–is looking at 15-20 years of three hots and a cot. By the time he’s released, there probably won’t be a North Korea, in which case he’d be free to drive up to Haengyong or Yodok to visit the mass grave where his brother’s remains would be interred.
There is a rich harvest of bitter irony in today’s Korea.
Posted by Joshua Stanton on February 28, 2005 at 11:41 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Lebanon Update: Things are getting very interesting there. It’s all starting to take on a somewhat Ukrainian look, and the Syrians really don’t dare to suppress them violently at this point. What they might do is turn Hezbollah loose on the demonstrators, however. That would mean civil war, and it would be an opportunity to support the Lebanese who seek the extinction of Hezbollah as a political and military force. Nothing resembling victory in our own war against terrorists is possible until we accomplish the latter.
UPDATE, 2/28: The Lebanese government has just resigned:
The announcement prompted cheers from more than 25,000 flag-waving
demonstrators protesting against the government and its Syrian backers outside
the parliament building.
The big losers? Syria’s Ba’athists, the Iraqi terrorists (who have become a liability that Syria can no longer affored), Hezbollah, and further downstream, Iran, which has long used Syria and Hezbollah to project its influence into the Arab world.
And of course, anything that shrinks America’s diplomatic and military to-do list is bad news for those remaining on that list, which is indeed the case if Syria has now been (1) marginalized as a force for ill, or (2) fatally weakened in the eyes of its own people. Ultimately, that makes North Korea another big loser.
And yeah, I suppose I would love to know just what’s buried in Syria’s ammo dumps, one way or another.
Posted by joshua on February 28, 2005 at 6:57 am · Filed under Uncategorized
As linked below, a North Korean has been arrested in China for murdering three people in Seoul in 2003. I don’t know whether the man is guilty, of course, but I wouldn’t be surprised that some North Koreans turn to crime, given the fact that North Korea is a society that inculcates its citizens with violence and blurs the moral absolutes that protect individual rights. Given that a certain percentage of human beings are inherently evil, I suppose the conditioning will stick in those cases.
What’s ironic is that because South Korea is now doing everything it can to keep defectors out, this defector may have found the best remaining way a North Korean can get into South Korea anymore–extradition. If this man had a twin brother, and the twin was the very paragon of virtue, paternal love, and hard work, he’d be facing a one-way ticket to torture, starvation, disease, and death for no greater crime than being born North Korean. His evil twin–presuming he’s fortunate enough to be convicted of triple murder–is looking at 15-20 years of three hots and a cot. By the time he’s released, there probably won’t be a North Korea, in which case he’d be free to drive up to Haengyong or Yodok to visit the mass grave where his brother’s remains would be interred.
There is a rich harvest of bitter irony in today’s Korea.
Posted by joshua on February 28, 2005 at 6:41 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Lebanon Update: Things are getting very interesting there. It’s all starting to take on a somewhat Ukrainian look, and the Syrians really don’t dare to suppress them violently at this point. What they might do is turn Hezbollah loose on the demonstrators, however. That would mean civil war, and it would be an opportunity to support the Lebanese who seek the extinction of Hezbollah as a political and military force. Nothing resembling victory in our own war against terrorists is possible until we accomplish the latter.
UPDATE, 2/28: The Lebanese government has just resigned:
The announcement prompted cheers from more than 25,000 flag-waving
demonstrators protesting against the government and its Syrian backers outside
the parliament building.
The big losers? Syria’s Ba’athists, the Iraqi terrorists (who have become a liability that Syria can no longer affored), Hezbollah, and further downstream, Iran, which has long used Syria and Hezbollah to project its influence into the Arab world.
And of course, anything that shrinks America’s diplomatic and military to-do list is bad news for those remaining on that list, which is indeed the case if Syria has now been (1) marginalized as a force for ill, or (2) fatally weakened in the eyes of its own people. Ultimately, that makes North Korea another big loser.
And yeah, I suppose I would love to know just what’s buried in Syria’s ammo dumps, one way or another.
Posted by Joshua Stanton on February 28, 2005 at 3:57 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Section 301 of the North Korean Human Rights Act required the State Department to submit a report on the conditions facing North Korean refugeess, and what we can do to help them. The report is out, and you can read it here. China takes some blunt frontal criticism for flagrantly violating the U.N. Refugee Convention, but the report is indefensibly soft on both South Korea and the UNHCR itself. Both are content to hide behind the Chinese police, hoping the latter will deflect North Koreans back to whatever peril awaits them.
It’s as if our own State Department had never heard of Chung Dong-Young’s Fugitive Slave Law, or the wretched and unprincipled dereliction of the U.N.’s “quiet diplomacy.” Both are ominous signs that the State Department will evade the chore of putting any effective pressure on either the U.N. or South Korea, over whom we might the influence to effect changes for the better.
UPDATE: Perhaps the fact that we’re still discussing it with the South Koreans explains it in part, but all we’re suggesting is that we take 10% of the people the South Koreans take. The South Koreans, of course, would like the denominator of that fraction to be as near to zero as possible. It seems as if that would suit our own State Department, too.
Of course, I still have reservations about the adaptability of North Koreans to life here. What is needed is a deal with Mongolia, Russia, or a Central Asian nation to house them temporarily (and a nice supply of untraceable AK-47s).
Posted by joshua on February 27, 2005 at 10:57 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Section 301 of the North Korean Human Rights Act required the State Department to submit a report on the conditions facing North Korean refugeess, and what we can do to help them. The report is out, and you can read it here. China takes some blunt frontal criticism for flagrantly violating the U.N. Refugee Convention, but the report is indefensibly soft on both South Korea and the UNHCR itself. Both are content to hide behind the Chinese police, hoping the latter will deflect North Koreans back to whatever peril awaits them.
It’s as if our own State Department had never heard of Chung Dong-Young’s Fugitive Slave Law, or the wretched and unprincipled dereliction of the U.N.’s “quiet diplomacy.” Both are ominous signs that the State Department will evade the chore of putting any effective pressure on either the U.N. or South Korea, over whom we might the influence to effect changes for the better.
UPDATE: Perhaps the fact that we’re still discussing it with the South Koreans explains it in part, but all we’re suggesting is that we take 10% of the people the South Koreans take. The South Koreans, of course, would like the denominator of that fraction to be as near to zero as possible. It seems as if that would suit our own State Department, too.
Of course, I still have reservations about the adaptability of North Koreans to life here. What is needed is a deal with Mongolia, Russia, or a Central Asian nation to house them temporarily (and a nice supply of untraceable AK-47s).
Posted by Joshua Stanton on February 27, 2005 at 4:28 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Japan has successfully launched a satellite into space with a new rocket capable of carrying heavier payloads. Although the space program isn’t technically military, Japan intends to launch spy satellites to watch North Korea in the near future.
Posted by joshua on February 26, 2005 at 11:28 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Japan has successfully launched a satellite into space with a new rocket capable of carrying heavier payloads. Although the space program isn’t technically military, Japan intends to launch spy satellites to watch North Korea in the near future.
Posted by joshua on February 26, 2005 at 11:28 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Japan has successfully launched a satellite into space with a new rocket capable of carrying heavier payloads. Although the space program isn’t technically military, Japan intends to launch spy satellites to watch North Korea in the near future.
Posted by Joshua Stanton on February 26, 2005 at 11:16 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Rev. Doug Shin e-mailed this very interesting report today, and although the main subject matter is the visible unraveling of the regime from the border town of Dandong, China, here is the first thing that I thought would interest readers, and Doug himself is the source:
From subtle rewordings in the state press and from reports Mr. Shin receives from a high-ranking North Korean official, he believes a band of military generals has already sidelined Mr. Kim. Most unusual, Mr. Shin said, is Kim Jong Il’s virtual disappearance from the public eye. “This kind of thing on this scale has never happened before,” Mr. Shin said. “Kim Jong Il has never spent more than five months away from outsiders’ view.” Yet even photos released of Mr. Kim with Chinese envoy Wang Jiarui in late February appear dated. The same entourage from Mr. Wang’s North Korea visit last year is shown.
Mr. Shin said official news organs are increasingly highlighting subordinates more than Kim Jong Il. At a Feb. 2-3 meeting of the “General Onward March for the Songun Revolution,” a pow-wow of the Communist Party leadership introduced 10 years ago by Mr. Kim to reinforce military-socialist indoctrination, the rhetoric shifted slightly away from praising Mr. Kim alone and toward the military leadership around him. An editorial in the country’s state-run newspaper, the Rodong Shinmun, carried “very unfamiliar terminology,” Mr. Shin said. “It said all the people have to protect and follow—usually Kim Jong Il—but this time also the head leadership. It was a plural concept with Kim Jong Il at the peak.”
Read the rest on your own. There is much information and speculation about possible sidelining of the civilian leadership, but as with all reports on North Korea, it rests on very few sources and should be consumed cautiously.
Still, there comes a point at which quantity of information begins to take on a degree of quality from its sheer cumulative and uncontradicted weight. I’d find some fresh videotape of Kim Jong Il or an announcement that the Dear Leader is rolling his special train into Beijing far more persuasive, but the lack thereof after so many diplomatically tense months is also starting to get persuasive.
Posted by joshua on February 26, 2005 at 6:16 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Rev. Doug Shin e-mailed this very interesting report today, and although the main subject matter is the visible unraveling of the regime from the border town of Dandong, China, here is the first thing that I thought would interest readers, and Doug himself is the source:
From subtle rewordings in the state press and from reports Mr. Shin receives from a high-ranking North Korean official, he believes a band of military generals has already sidelined Mr. Kim. Most unusual, Mr. Shin said, is Kim Jong Il’s virtual disappearance from the public eye. “This kind of thing on this scale has never happened before,” Mr. Shin said. “Kim Jong Il has never spent more than five months away from outsiders’ view.” Yet even photos released of Mr. Kim with Chinese envoy Wang Jiarui in late February appear dated. The same entourage from Mr. Wang’s North Korea visit last year is shown.
Mr. Shin said official news organs are increasingly highlighting subordinates more than Kim Jong Il. At a Feb. 2-3 meeting of the “General Onward March for the Songun Revolution,” a pow-wow of the Communist Party leadership introduced 10 years ago by Mr. Kim to reinforce military-socialist indoctrination, the rhetoric shifted slightly away from praising Mr. Kim alone and toward the military leadership around him. An editorial in the country’s state-run newspaper, the Rodong Shinmun, carried “very unfamiliar terminology,” Mr. Shin said. “It said all the people have to protect and follow—usually Kim Jong Il—but this time also the head leadership. It was a plural concept with Kim Jong Il at the peak.”
Read the rest on your own. There is much information and speculation about possible sidelining of the civilian leadership, but as with all reports on North Korea, it rests on very few sources and should be consumed cautiously.
Still, there comes a point at which quantity of information begins to take on a degree of quality from its sheer cumulative and uncontradicted weight. I’d find some fresh videotape of Kim Jong Il or an announcement that the Dear Leader is rolling his special train into Beijing far more persuasive, but the lack thereof after so many diplomatically tense months is also starting to get persuasive.
Posted by Joshua Stanton on February 25, 2005 at 4:31 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Lullaby Thought of the Day:
The two countries whose nuclear programs have raised alarms of late may be cooperating more closely than previously known. North Korea agreed six years ago to stop flight-testing longer-range ballistic missiles, which could deliver nuclear or chemical warheads, in exchange for relief from U.S. economic sanctions. Pyongyang still claims it is sticking to the deal, but some Administration officials think it may be cheating by using Iran as its proxy.
Sugarplums. Lollipops. Sunshine. Jimmy Carter. Demerol. People sitting down, talking, and getting in touch with each other’s points of view and learning to trust each other. Feel better yet?
UPDATE: Maybe all is not lost. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are worried about keeping a lid on all the unrest, if this report (courtesy Dr. Zin at Regime Change Iran) is accurate. Personally, I view this as an illustration of how things could get out of hand. It’s just too hard to verify what we hear from Iran, for some of the same reasons that apply to North Korea. All we can do is use what influence we have to create opportunities for the forces of change.
UPDATE II: More here, from National Review (not even Michael Ledeen). Unf, most of it is for subscribers only.
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