Archive for June, 2005
Posted by Joshua on June 30, 2005 at 10:40 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
No connection whatsoever, right? Well, staking your argument on proving a negative is always exceedingly hazardous terrain, especially when there’s compelling evidence to contradict you. It’s not proof beyond a reasonable doubt, but since when do we give secretive, opaque regimes the benefit of a standard that was designed for jury trials conducted after open-file discovery?
The greater point, of course, is that as the Sunni insurgency slowly recedes, our enemy in Iraq is increasingly the same group that attacked us on 9/11. If we lose our nerve and cede them a safe haven, we’re finished as a nation.
Posted by joshua on June 30, 2005 at 9:04 am · Filed under Uncategorized
Recently, a reporter named Chris Nelson, since retired and gone into the consulting business, made the mistake of preparing a confidential report for the South Korean Embassy in Washington, and then erroneously sending that report to his entire list of hundreds of e-mail newsletter subscribers. Two different anonymous sources sent me copies of the report, and the Washington Post has since covered the story of its accidental disclosure.
I have decided that at least one section of the Nelson Report merits printing: the section Nelson wrote about other journalists and his advice to the Korean Embassy on how to deal with them. As you read this, bear in mind that Nelson is an ex-UPI reporter and a die-hard advocate of “engagement” with the North Korean government, very much in the Jack Pritchard mold. Whether you agree with that view or not, this section is a fascinating look at who is writing your news and what biases they bring to their stories. Even if you agree with him, you should be disturbed about so many journalists’ abandonment of objectivity and not-so-concealed desire to influence events and gain “player” status.
What’s truly striking here is that Chris Nelson wrote this for a foreign embassy whose policy goal–the preservation of the North Korean regime–is directly contrary to U.S. interests and reflected in the accelerating dissolution of the U.S.-ROK alliance. Even if Nelson is being truthful when he claims that he wrote this for free and on his own volition, his politics skim effortlessly past the water’s edge, and he has willingly made himself an undisclosed agent of a foreign nation whose interests diverge from our own. Those interests also differ from media consumers who don’t like their news flavored by foreign governments. Draw your own conclusions about what that means, even if you agree that this report doesn’t exactly contain state secrets. What it means to me is that Nelson shares the South Korean government’s culpability for trying to bury the story of the political cleansing of millions of North Koreans.
Finally, a disclaimer: While I have at least two different sources for this document, I don’t know if any of what Nelson is saying about anyone is actually true. Here, then, Section 7 of Nelson’s document with no redactions or deletions. All emphasis my own.
7. THE PRESS:
A very short list, again. No one in the influential national news media is a “Korea expert” per se, except Dan Sneider (mentioned below) and Don Oberdorfer, who no longer practices daily journalism. However, because of the non-proliferation, and China policy/Asia policy associations, certain reporters well known to you write all the time on aspects of Korea policy.
The best and most reliable “insider” is a genuine Korea expert, Dan Sneider, who is syndicated nationally through the San Jose (Ca.) Mercury News. Sneider is the son of the Carter-era Ambassador to South Korea, speaks Korean, and has a deep understanding and sympathy for the issues and the people involved. He is highly critical of Bush policy, but is a deliberate “player” who has managed to maintain good relations with the NSC’s Green and Cha, and virtually anyone mentioned in this Report.
Because he enjoys no Washington, D.C. or New York City outlet, however, Sneider’s written influence is indirect, via having his pieces sent around by email, or by influencing the writing of his friend David Sanger of The New York Times.
Sanger is a difficult case to analyze, since he is a tireless and often brilliant reporter, but who is deeply cynical about what is required to secure a coveted place on the front page of the world’s most important newspaper. Ever since his days in the Tokyo Bureau in the late 1980’s, Sanger has been notorious for catering to established power centers for the “official news”, and for not seeking alternate or critical sources who might contradict the officials, and this “kill” the story. On Korea policy, Sanger’s proclivity has produced an endless series of damaging and frequently false stories which, themselves, are “true”…it IS true that “senior Administration officials today said”…or that “US intelligence officials feel…” that the DPRK is ready to test a bomb, or to defy the US, or to…take your pick. Until or unless forced to by his editors (or peer pressure) what Sanger does not do is seek out Jonathan Pollack or Bob Carlin or Joel Wit, or Jack Pritchard…or any of the known “dissident experts” likely to shoot-down the story, or at least diminish its importance. This is a huge problem with major policy implications and the Embassy should forcefully address it.
Far more intellectually honest is The Washington Post’s Glenn Kessler, and a rising star is the Post’s defense reporter, (Ms.) Dafna Linzer. Neither are “Korea” experts, but they write constantly about Korea policy. Previously very interested, and still occasionally active on Korea is former Times reporter Barbara Slavin, of USA TODAY. Slavin is very tough minded, and makes no secret of her loathing of the Bush Administration. She no longer receives “special attention” from The White House, despite political chief Karl Rove’s view that USA TODAY is the most important national newspaper, due to its circulation in every small town in America.
More in the “bomb thrower” category is journalist Jasper Becker, who turns out fighly emotional, not partcularly balanced “OpEds” which are violently critical of N. Korea on human rights grounds. He is not wrong, obviously…but his influence on policy is to reinforce the hard-liners at the expense of the pro-engagement forces, to the exent they have survived in the Bush Administration.
Clearly a major “bomb thrower” is The Washington Times and its defense reporter, Bill Gertz. Gertz is the willing agent of The Blue Team…the coalition of dissident anti-communist hard-liners who work to oppose what they see as “soft” US policy on China and N. Korea. If David Sanger is dishonest by omission, Gertz is dishonest by deliberate commission…he is willing to print anything which is critical of communists and those in the US whom he and/or The Blue Team feel are “soft”. He is exceptionally dangerous for this reason and should be treated with extreme care by the Embassy.
Magazine reporters should not be ignored. A major player for now is The New Republic’s Joshua Kurlantzick, who has been both interested in, and concerned about problems with Bush Korea policy. He makes frequent trips to the region, and often seeks advice and introductions. A rising player of interest is The Washington Monthly’s Soyoung Ho, the daughter of a retired ROK diplomat. Ms. Ho is very active and very ambitious, and should be helped as appropriate.
Last and perhaps least, for better or for worse, The Nelson Report, prepared daily by yours truly (who began with UPI in New York in 1967), has established a position of influence by sheer persistence and focus, and the reach of its information sources throughout the Asia policy and trade community…in and out of the Administration, and across the world. God bless e-mail. Nelson was on the HIRC Asia Subcommittee from 1977 to 1981, and a frequent visitor to Korea, and the region, and later served on the Senate Democratic Policy Committee. Since 1983 he has produced what is now called The Nelson Report. “Everyone” talks to him, even, sometimes, still, Mike Green.
A few comments.
Several people thought I had Tourette’s Syndrome when I read Nelson call the WaPo’s Glenn Kessler “intellectually honest.” Neither he nor Dafna Lizner can seems able to write an entire paragraph without an extraneous editorial comment, but those comments invariably fit Nelson’s own biases nicely, thus earning his praise. This is in spite of Nelson’s concession that neither speaks Korean nor knows much about Korea (no news there; I seldom get through a report on the Iraq war without seeing some verbal evidence that the reporter never served).
Contrast Nelson’s adulation of Kessler–exceeded only by Nelson’s adulation of Nelson–with his resentment of David Sanger for actually getting quotes from the people who occupy the White House (the comment on Sanger’s failure to quote critical sources is demonstrably false). Sanger is well known in Washington for his good contacts within the administration, and since journalists are human, there’s probably a mixture of professional envy and resentment of Sanger’s strike-breaking refusal to simply print what comes across the Selig Harrison Intercom Network. Agree with Sanger’s politics or not; his sources are well-placed, and his reporting is detailed and rigorous.
On the “bomb-thrower” Jasper Becker, I can only say that I’m sixty pages into his new book, Rogue Regime, and it’s already looking like the best book about North Korea I’ve read–and I’ve read most of the non-Bruce Cummings stuff by now.
AFTERTHOUGHT: If Nelson’s accusations of “bomb-throwing” are not sufficient evidence to show that not all journalists share his agenda, bear in mind that one of my sources, Mister Bigglesworth, is also a journalist for a well-read news outlet. It’s a sad comment, however, that only someone like myself could print this kind of unapproved samizdat.
Posted by Joshua on June 29, 2005 at 10:39 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Tonight, I’ll be trying to crash a screening of a new film about Megumi Yokota, produced by Safari Media. Here, courtesy of Norbert Vollertsen, is an article about her in Christianity Today.
Here is a previous blog post on North Korea’s handover of remains which it claims were hers, but weren’t. And one more.
UPDATE: I have so much more to say about this film than I have time to say now. The fund-raiser last night was a spectacular success, if attendance is any indication. The crowd was young, diverse, and bipartisan. Former U.S. House Speaker and Ambassador to Japan Tom Foley was there, along with numerous NGO reps from the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Co-producer Patti Kim is a striking woman and a riveting speaker who exudes her sincere dedicating to telling this story (admittedly, one that never mattered much to me before–what’s one life in two million?).
Walking home toward the Metro, I turned to ask directions from a distinguished-looking man who looked like he knew his way around. He turned out to be James Lilley, the former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea and China, and a giant among giants. He had been having a drink with friends; his appearance at that time and place was a complete coincidence. While we walked toward the Metro stop, we discussed the film and the South Korean displeasure with him at his recent comments in The American Enterprise, something I could have predicted (I predicted a “panicked reaction” among the Korean papers, which hasn’t happened yet). Come back this weekend to see a summary.
CORRECTION: On rethinking, my memory isn’t clear enough to say for certain that Amb. Lilley specifically mentioned the ROK Embassy, although I was left with that impression.
Posted by Joshua on June 29, 2005 at 10:13 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Professor R.J. Rummell explains why. I may not have explained that when Prof. Rummell left a comment on this blog, I couldn’t figure out why his name seemed so familiar. Then I remembered citing some of his writings on genocide for a larger work I’m writing. His discussion of the EMP threat makes for some scary reading, too.
Posted by Joshua on June 29, 2005 at 8:33 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
More bad news for the South Korean economy.
Posted by Joshua on June 29, 2005 at 8:16 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
Did you realize that Roh Moo-Hyun was a founding shareholder of the far-lefty Hankyoreh? Or that he recently contributed 10 grand to the publication it help it through a rough spell? I didn’t, either.
Naturally, it’s safe to assume that none of this impacted the independence of the Hanky’s coverage in the slightest.
And all of this is completely coincidental, too, of course.
Posted by Joshua on June 29, 2005 at 4:19 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
You heard it here first. Hat tip: my deep cover source, who I’ll just call Mister Bigglesworth.
Nelson, a former UPI reporter and House and Senate staffer, rails at some reporters’ coverage — New York Times reporter David Sanger “is dishonest by omission,” Washington Times reporter Bill Gertz is “dishonest by commission.”
He then referred to himself in the third person, saying that his work “has established a position of influence by sheer persistence and focus,” and ” ‘everyone’ talks to him. . . .” Hmmm. Maybe not anymore.
In a follow-up e-mail Saturday, an anguished Nelson wrote to his e-mail list, “In a single moment of stupidity, I have hurt and betrayed many who have tried so generously to help and who share my deepest fears about Korea policy. “Apology is impossible at this point. I can only ask mercy.”
I don’t think the Post realizes that there could be legal implications for Mr. Nelson. The answer probably depends on whether Nelson was “directed” by a foreign embassy or simply offered up this information unsolicited.
Posted by Joshua on June 29, 2005 at 2:16 am · Filed under Uncategorized
There is a leaked report circulating in Washington today from the author of “The Nelson Report.” The Nelson Report is a Jack Pritchard’s-eye-view paid subscription version of what Korea bloggers give out for free, just not as well written or sourced.
Apparently, Nelson was commissioned by the ROK Embassy in Washington to write a summary of who’s who in Washington’s Korea policy-making. My source informs me that the author, who wrote that he’d have to seek political asylum if the report were ever leaked, then inadvertently sent it out to his entire subscription e-mail newsletter distro list. Nice going.
I’ve read the whole thing. It doesn’t look like the makings of state secrets, but it was very interesting reading, notwithstanding my deep disagreements with its perspective and bitter advocacy thereof. At the same time, it consists mostly of gossip, rumor, extraneous (and often deeply personal) detail, and embittered personal opinions of a man who looks back on life and wishes he mattered. The author clearly shares the Uri perspective on Washington and happily obliges his audience’s distaste for this administration.
The report was sent to me by an anonymous source. Someone also posted the entire text in a comment here. After much thinking, I have decided to take down the text for now, even though I know the press already has it. Others may publish it; that’s fine. I have read the report and will let its salient facts be reflected in my other posts. I may publish the text later this week, although I’ll take out the personal stuff first, something I’d still do even if other blogs or newspapers may publish it.
As I understand the salient facts from a very reliable anonymous source, Nelson is a U.S. citizen and former UPI reporter who is now working for a private consulting firm. His views are decidedly of the Jack Pritchard line. Nelson is not a Korean or other foreign diplomat. He wrote this report for the ROK Embassy to help them keep tabs on the various personalities of the U.S. government who could influence Korea policy. The information all appears to come from open sources; almost all of it consists of gossip and personal invective.
The FARA, 18 U.S.C. sec. 951
I’m not accusing Mr. Nelson of breaking the law, but I hope he’s talked to a lawyer. If I’m right about the facts I’ve related above, Mr. Nelson may have been operating “under the direction or control of a foreign government or official.” That means he should have registered as an agent of the Korean government with the Attorney General, and as of two months ago, neither Mr. Nelson nor his consulting firm had done that. I know, because I have the list of registered foreign agents for both Koreas; it’s available to the public.
I hope to publish the report here later this week–sans personal details–but even if you read it elsewhere, come back here to read what it means. This could have the makings of a mini-scandal for U.S.-Korean relations.
Title 18, U.S. Code, Sec. 951:
(a) Whoever, other than a diplomatic or consular officer or attache, acts in the United States as an agent of a foreign government without prior notification to the Attorney General if required in subsection (b), shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both.
(b) The Attorney General shall promulgate rules and regulations establishing requirements for notification.
. . . .
(d) For purposes of this section, the term ‘’agent of a foreign government'’ means an individual who agrees to operate within the United States subject to the direction or control of a foreign government or official, except that such term does not include –
(1) a duly accredited diplomatic or consular officer of a foreign government, who is so recognized by the Department of State;
(2) any officially and publicly acknowledged and sponsored official or representative of a foreign government;
(3) any officially and publicly acknowledged and sponsored member of the staff of, or employee of, an officer, official, or representative described in paragraph (1) or (2), who is not a United States citizen; or
(4) any person engaged in a legal commercial transaction.
You can look it up yourself at 18 U.S.C. sec. 951. The rest is up to the lawyers. But was it really necessary for this needledick to discuss the personal lives, troubles, medical histories, and religious beliefs of these people? Or to tell that to foreign diplomats?
So there you have it. No text yet. Sorry to disappoint you, but I will sleep soundly tonight. If wiser counsel (such as the Justice Department) tells me that this can be made public, you’ll see the full text, minus personal stuff about people’s love lives, medical histories, etc.
And to the anonymous source(s) who sent this: thank you very much for thinking of me first. If my decision to hold off has disappointed you, I hope you understand that I have to let my conscience be my guide. If that weren’t the case, this blog wouldn’t be here at all.
Posted by Joshua on June 28, 2005 at 11:28 am · Filed under Uncategorized
UPDATE: Welcome FARK readers. No, the full text of the Nelson Report is NOT here (it was dropped in a comment, which I deleted) although you can read part of it here, explaining the South Korean government is trying to influence American media against talking about the political cleansing of 2 million innocent people in North Korea. There are many more substantive posts relating to human rights in North Korea and regional policy here.
UPDATE 2: Here’s something else the South Korean Embassy would rather you didn’t see (more here). Their government would also rather not pass a law to prohibit it. I served as a soldier in Korea for four years, and these signs are not common, but the practice of barring Americans from various business establishments is. The Korean media do their best to inspire the hatred that drives it.
Original Post:
Meet Alexander Vershbow. He already sounds like my kind of ambassador:
Since becoming ambassador to Russia in July 2001, Vershbow has acquired a reputation for bluntness. It is not an easy task for ambassadors representing their governments to speak diplomatically in Russia, but Vershbow’s running commentary on Russia’s handling of the Beslan hostage incident, democratic revolutions in former Soviet states and Russian democracy itself have left his host government perpetually embarrassed. He has stressed that Moscow needs to guarantee freedom of the press and freedom of corporate activity. He has more than once expressed concern about Russian democracy, not least in the case about Yukos and the arrest of its chairman, Mikhail Khordokovsky. While he is understood to be speaking for Washington and not for himself, Moscow has nonetheless reacted sensitively to his comments.
Posted by Joshua on June 27, 2005 at 8:37 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
As predicted, the truth of what took place during the Bush-Roh meeting is starting to leak out from behind the U.S. and Korean governments’ message machine. The “left” faction of Uri, as represented by Anti-Unification Minister (of Silly Talks) Chung Dong-Young, appears to want a do-over, and Chung has stepped up and declared himself the man for the job. Seoul’s most pliable man is now on his way to Washington to bring fresh tidings of the reformed man formerly known as Kim Jong-Il to Washington’s least pliable man: Dick Cheney.
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young will travel to Washington tomorrow to meet U.S. counterparts and discuss his recent meetings with North Korean officials, including Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang.
The ministry said yesterday Chung will pay a five-day visit to Washington and relay the outcome of last week’s inter-Korean ministerial meeting and his talk June 17 with Kim.
. . . .
Chung, who also heads the presidential National Security Council, is likely to meet Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, among others, but the schedule has not been confirmed yet, ministry officials said.
The South Korean government has been moving fast to spread North Korea’s hint at a change in attitude regarding its anticipated return to the six-party talks after Kim Jong-il personally told Chung the North may return to the talks next month if it gains respect from Washington.
Here’s more classic Uri, and have your wastebasket on your lap for this one:
[G]overnment sources say the minister is going chiefly to persuade Vice President Dick Cheney, the administrations most ardent hardliner, to soften his stance on North Korea. Chung will meet Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley.
“After North Korea sent positive signals recently about returning to six-party talks [on its nuclear program], the restart of the negotiations, which have been stalled for a year, is at hand,” a Korean official said Monday. “Vice President Cheney needs to say something reassuring to North Korea.”
Since we can’t say “peace is at hand,” or “peace in our time,” we need some less daring famous last words. “Talks are at hand.” Fine, but talks have been at hand for a decade; accomplishment of something in those talks isn’t.
More here. There is even one reason for qualified praise for Chung:
Chung said he will use the sixth round of Red Cross talks slated for this August to begin a full-fledged discussion with the North on the return of hundreds of South Korean soldiers who were believed to have been abducted to North Korea and prisoners of war during and after the 1950-1953 Korean War.
My post on the April visit of two of these POWs to Washington here, if you haven’t seen it yet.
Now, I said “qualified” praise for a reason–Chung’s under political duress. Oppo leader Park Geun-Hye has also been talking about the issue, arguably for reasons that are more expedient than principled, but in a way that certainly sounds more credible than Chung. I recommend this entire article, in fact, because it might even lead you to believe that the Grand National Party is finding the voice it needs to present an alternative vision and seize the agenda from a demoralized and divided Uri. Money quote:
“The government must boldly bring up the issues of military prisoners, dispersed families and North Korean defectors, and North Korea should make pledges and hold to them, in return for our aid,” said Park chairwoman of the main opposition Grand National Party, in a speech to the Seoul Foreign Correspondents’ Club at the Korea Press Foundation.
Criticizing the government for its “hesitant and weak approach” toward the North, Park asserted the need for a firm and transparent North Korean policy to keep up the current optimistic atmosphere after President Roh Moo-hyun’s successful summit with the U.S. President George W. Bush and the reopening of talks between the two Koreas.
Could this be the end of the GNP’s “Sunshine Lite,” and a movement toward a Korean “hawk engagement?” How long before we learn of her involvement in some orphanage-land-speculation scandal?
Roh-begone
Having taken on both Vice President Cheney and the opposition, you’d think that Chung would have enough problems on his hands. Yet it seems that up to this point, I’d managed not to notice that Chung is on the outs with Roh himself. That fact came out in the course of Roh’s latest self-pitying Hamlet act in front of the cameras, something he tends to do after political trouncings. Have a look at this cryptic little paragraph from yesterday’s Joongang Ilbo:
Mr. Roh opposed party moves to hold the current party leadership responsible and to entice former party leaders such as Unification Minister Chung Dong-young and Health Minister Kim Keun-tae to return to the party. “If they [Mr. Chung and Mr. Kim] come back to the party now, they will only get hurt rather than showing leadership,” Mr. Roh said.
Under the circumstances, you have to wonder whether Chung really represents the President of the Republic of Korea. It seems more plausible that this is just the latest of Chung’s machinations to build up his base for his next run at the presidency. It’s another sign of growing fissures in the Korean left, even as the GNP appears to have acquired an agenda:
Feeling a sense of urgency for the shaky governing party, President Roh Moo-hyun sent a letter both scolding and encouraging Uri Party members yesterday.
“I regret to see that the Uri Party is shaking now, and state affairs are difficult,” Mr. Roh wrote in the letter. “A political party that does not have minimum regulations and discipline cannot receive public support.”
Mr. Roh’s letter came amid dropping popularity of the governing party and allegations that his aides and other Uri lawmakers are involved in several scandals.
“The decisive reasons that made circumstances difficult for the party are the loss of ethical trust by the people, a loss of influence and fading power to hold party members together,” the letter said.
Posted by Joshua on June 27, 2005 at 7:48 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
More required reading from Jasper Becker. Thanks to Norbert Vollertsen for the hat tip. What is this nagging inconsistency about the region’s North Korea diplomacy? Becker articulates:
Anyone proposing to offer Kim cast-iron security guarantees and unconditional aid thus has to engage in a kind of “double think.'’ They must ignore their better instincts in order to justify engaging him and simultaneously believe that, given his track record, he is capable of unleashing nuclear weapons. Chinese diplomats routinely claim that there would be tremendous civil disorder if he fell from power. Kim therefore becomes the pillar of regional stability. South Korean officials claim the burden of restoring the North Korean economy is too huge even to think about. Instead of being seen as the chief obstacle who needs to be removed in order to make progress, Kim is elevated to becoming the vital conduit for change.
Becker’s essay goes into so many aspects of what’s wrong with the assumptions beneath our diplomacy, I couldn’t begin to find one paragraph to do it justice. He also tabulates the North Korean regime’s butcher’s bill, which adds up to a ghastly seven million dead. And then there’s this:
The moral case against the North Korean regime was already strong in 1994, but has been strengthened immeasurably with the famine. After Kim deliberately allowed three million of his own people to die in the famine, should he be allowed to stay in power? Genocide is normally interpreted to mean the mass killings of another race … but this too is a form of genocide.
Legally speaking, I’d agree if the Genocide Convention hadn’t been influenced by Stalin’s diplomats to exclude the mass murder of political and social groups. The message to aspiring tyrants is that they are free to slaughter all the commies, fags, kulaks, class enemies, and bespectacled “new people” they wish without having to confront the “G” word in a court of law. Needless to say, the definition is controversial and differs from common understanding of the term.
But is Kim Jong Il a mass murderer? By all means. The rest is up to the lawyers and the hangman.
I’d add that I bought Becker’s new book, Rogue Regime, last weekend, and it does not disappoint. This would make four books on North Korea that I’m currently reading, since I finally turned up that copy of Marcus Noland’s Korea After Kim Jong-Il that I lost on that hectic night I had to bring my son to the hospital.
Posted by Joshua on June 27, 2005 at 6:43 pm · Filed under NK Economics, Six-Party Talks, Appeasement
A major justification of South Korea’s unification policy is that by continuing to help North Korea, through the “Sunshine Policy,” they are facilitating both an atmosphere conducive to good relations and a way to help North Korea rebuild itself. The idea is that if North Korea is more prosperous, it will be able to rebuild some of its own infrastructure, thus reducing the cost of reunification in the future.
Besides overlooking the glaringly obvious fact that if North Korea is prosperous enough to begin to rebuild its infrastructure it will have no need to reunify, which is after all the goal of the current regime, there is another angle, covered by Professor Hwang Eui-gak of Korea University:
An economist specializing in the North Korean economy has said the longer Korean unification is put off the more expensive it will become when it finally happens. “In order to reduce the costs of unification, we must quickly unify, and North Korea must end its one-sided devotion to politics and the military and open up substantially” … According to Hwang’s estimates, the cost of unification would have been US$312 billion in 1990, US$777.6 billion in 1995 and US$1.204 trillion in 2000… [emphasis added]
At the same time, many political analysts in the South are paying attention to this:
A Korean affairs analyst said the North Korean nuclear issue would only be resolved by the communist country and the United States, not by the two Koreas… The report quoted Leon Sigal, a senior analyst at the Social Science Research Council in New York, as saying that it’s been “clear to everyone for a long time” that the nuclear impasse is not a matter for South and North Korea. “That is something that’s going to be resolved, if ever, between the U.S. and the North Koreans in the six-party (talks),” Sigal told the RFA. [emphasis added]
Even the U.S. analyst the South Koreans are quoting, Sigal, notes the importance of the Six-Party Talks, but the South is still trying to appease the North by suggesting that direct U.S.-DPRK talks would help. Of course some in the U.S. also advocate such an approach, which would be as about as useful and the UN. President Bush has been very consistent on this issue.
If the South Koreans want a) to resolve the nuclear issue, and b) to reduce the cost of reunification, they need to look for more rational and logical policy alternatives to what they are doing now.
But the South Koreans - government, media, and one must assume average citizens - just do not want to hear this, according to Bruce Klinger in the Asia Times Online. First a bit on what occurred:
The dichotomy between the positions of the United States and South Korea in their perceptions following the recent summit of presidents Roh Moo-hyun and George W Bush is so broad that Seoul and the populace may well feel betrayed once it becomes apparent that the US has not altered its intention to increase pressure on Pyongyang over its nuclear program… Although both countries were eager to portray the solidarity of their alliance, neither president was willing to compromise on their diametrically opposed convictions regarding the nature of the North Korean regime and the most viable policy to alter its behavior. As a result, each president will continue to pursue his own policy, self-assured in its righteousness but risking misfortune due to an unwillingness or inability to accommodate the other… [emphasis added]
And media portrayal of what the meeting meant:
US media reporting was generally dismissive of the presidential summit statements as bromides designed merely to reduce short-term tensions between the two allies and were not reflective of a change in Washington’s policy objectives…
Conversely, South Korean media were universally praiseworthy in their coverage of the summit, characterizing it as having attained US agreement to Roh’s advocacy of diplomacy and putting sanctions against North Korea in abeyance… The South Korean government and media clearly assimilated the portion of the US message pledging to seek a diplomatic resolution, but were dismissive or in denial of the remainder of Washington’s intent of the eventual need to resort to “other measures” once, not if, negotiations failed. As a result, Seoul will continue to pursue its engagement policy, having declared that the summit achieved “breathing room” for continued diplomatic overtures, apparently unaware that the US is not fully on board with the South Korean approach. The summit meeting did not delineate a deadline for moving beyond diplomacy, nor articulate a common strategy for escalatory measures. [emphasis added]
Read the rest here.
Posted by Joshua on June 27, 2005 at 5:51 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
This is your must-reading of the day.
Nicholas Eberstadt has a new piece out in The Weekly Standard. Here’s a sample.
Not far from Seoul–maybe a half hour’s journey north, by jet plane–an untold number of terrified Koreans are hiding in a foreign land, engaged in a grave and uncertain struggle for survival. . . . These wretched vagabonds–most of them women and children–are escapees from North Korea. They have crossed the Yalu and the Tumen into China in tiny groups, driven into the unknown by Kim Jong Il’s man-made famine. That catastrophe–the only peacetime famine to befall an urbanized, literate society in all of human history–claimed hundreds upon hundreds of thousands of victims in the 1990s; though the death toll from the ongoing North Korean food crisis seems for the moment to have subsided, hunger remains a dire problem there–especially for that society’s officially disfavored strata.
Emphasis mine. Eberstadt goes on to argue convincingly that accepting North Korean refugees is (1) morally compelled; (2) legally compelled by the ROK Constitution; (3) beneficial to the long-term socio-economic interests of unification; and (4) an excellent means of nonviolent diplomatic pressure on an intransigent North.
There is too much good material there to excerpt, although some of it will look familiar to regular readers of this site.
Now go read the rest on your own.
HT: Rob at The Kommentariat.
Posted by joshua on June 27, 2005 at 3:37 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
As predicted, the truth of what took place during the Bush-Roh meeting is starting to leak out from behind the U.S. and Korean governments’ message machine. The “left” faction of Uri, as represented by Anti-Unification Minister (of Silly Talks) Chung Dong-Young, appears to want a do-over, and Chung has stepped up and declared himself the man for the job. Seoul’s most pliable man is now on his way to Washington to bring fresh tidings of the reformed man formerly known as Kim Jong-Il to Washington’s least pliable man: Dick Cheney.
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young will travel to Washington tomorrow to meet U.S. counterparts and discuss his recent meetings with North Korean officials, including Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang.
The ministry said yesterday Chung will pay a five-day visit to Washington and relay the outcome of last week’s inter-Korean ministerial meeting and his talk June 17 with Kim.
. . . .
Chung, who also heads the presidential National Security Council, is likely to meet Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, among others, but the schedule has not been confirmed yet, ministry officials said.
The South Korean government has been moving fast to spread North Korea’s hint at a change in attitude regarding its anticipated return to the six-party talks after Kim Jong-il personally told Chung the North may return to the talks next month if it gains respect from Washington.
Here’s more classic Uri, and have your wastebasket on your lap for this one:
[G]overnment sources say the minister is going chiefly to persuade Vice President Dick Cheney, the administrations most ardent hardliner, to soften his stance on North Korea. Chung will meet Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley.
“After North Korea sent positive signals recently about returning to six-party talks [on its nuclear program], the restart of the negotiations, which have been stalled for a year, is at hand,” a Korean official said Monday. “Vice President Cheney needs to say something reassuring to North Korea.”
Since we can’t say “peace is at hand,” or “peace in our time,” we need some less daring famous last words. “Talks are at hand.” Fine, but talks have been at hand for a decade; accomplishment of something in those talks isn’t.
More here. There is even one reason for qualified praise for Chung:
Chung said he will use the sixth round of Red Cross talks slated for this August to begin a full-fledged discussion with the North on the return of hundreds of South Korean soldiers who were believed to have been abducted to North Korea and prisoners of war during and after the 1950-1953 Korean War.
My post on the April visit of two of these POWs to Washington here, if you haven’t seen it yet.
Now, I said “qualified” praise for a reason–Chung’s under political duress. Oppo leader Park Geun-Hye has also been talking about the issue, arguably for reasons that are more expedient than principled, but in a way that certainly sounds more credible than Chung. I recommend this entire article, in fact, because it might even lead you to believe that the Grand National Party is finding the voice it needs to present an alternative vision and seize the agenda from a demoralized and divided Uri. Money quote:
“The government must boldly bring up the issues of military prisoners, dispersed families and North Korean defectors, and North Korea should make pledges and hold to them, in return for our aid,” said Park chairwoman of the main opposition Grand National Party, in a speech to the Seoul Foreign Correspondents’ Club at the Korea Press Foundation.
Criticizing the government for its “hesitant and weak approach” toward the North, Park asserted the need for a firm and transparent North Korean policy to keep up the current optimistic atmosphere after President Roh Moo-hyun’s successful summit with the U.S. President George W. Bush and the reopening of talks between the two Koreas.
Could this be the end of the GNP’s “Sunshine Lite,” and a movement toward a Korean “hawk engagement?” How long before we learn of her involvement in some orphanage-land-speculation scandal?
Roh-begone
Having taken on both Vice President Cheney and the opposition, you’d think that Chung would have enough problems on his hands. Yet it seems that up to this point, I’d managed not to notice that Chung is on the outs with Roh himself. That fact came out in the course of Roh’s latest self-pitying Hamlet act in front of the cameras, something he tends to do after political trouncings. Have a look at this cryptic little paragraph from yesterday’s Joongang Ilbo:
Mr. Roh opposed party moves to hold the current party leadership responsible and to entice former party leaders such as Unification Minister Chung Dong-young and Health Minister Kim Keun-tae to return to the party. “If they [Mr. Chung and Mr. Kim] come back to the party now, they will only get hurt rather than showing leadership,” Mr. Roh said.
Under the circumstances, you have to wonder whether Chung really represents the President of the Republic of Korea. It seems more plausible that this is just the latest of Chung’s machinations to build up his base for his next run at the presidency. It’s another sign of growing fissures in the Korean left, even as the GNP appears to have acquired an agenda:
Feeling a sense of urgency for the shaky governing party, President Roh Moo-hyun sent a letter both scolding and encouraging Uri Party members yesterday.
“I regret to see that the Uri Party is shaking now, and state affairs are difficult,” Mr. Roh wrote in the letter. “A political party that does not have minimum regulations and discipline cannot receive public support.”
Mr. Roh’s letter came amid dropping popularity of the governing party and allegations that his aides and other Uri lawmakers are involved in several scandals.
“The decisive reasons that made circumstances difficult for the party are the loss of ethical trust by the people, a loss of influence and fading power to hold party members together,” the letter said.
Posted by joshua on June 27, 2005 at 3:37 pm · Filed under Uncategorized
As predicted, the truth of what took place during the Bush-Roh meeting is starting to leak out from behind the U.S. and Korean governments’ message machine. The “left” faction of Uri, as represented by Anti-Unification Minister (of Silly Talks) Chung Dong-Young, appears to want a do-over, and Chung has stepped up and declared himself the man for the job. Seoul’s most pliable man is now on his way to Washington to bring fresh tidings of the reformed man formerly known as Kim Jong-Il to Washington’s least pliable man: Dick Cheney.
Unification Minister Chung Dong-young will travel to Washington tomorrow to meet U.S. counterparts and discuss his recent meetings with North Korean officials, including Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang.
The ministry said yesterday Chung will pay a five-day visit to Washington and relay the outcome of last week’s inter-Korean ministerial meeting and his talk June 17 with Kim.
. . . .
Chung, who also heads the presidential National Security Council, is likely to meet Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, among others, but the schedule has not been confirmed yet, ministry officials said.
The South Korean government has been moving fast to spread North Korea’s hint at a change in attitude regarding its anticipated return to the six-party talks after Kim Jong-il personally told Chung the North may return to the talks next month if it gains respect from Washington.
Here’s more classic Uri, and have your wastebasket on your lap for this one:
[G]overnment sources say the minister is going chiefly to persuade Vice President Dick Cheney, the administrations most ardent hardliner, to soften his stance on North Korea. Chung will meet Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley.
“After North Korea sent positive signals recently about returning to six-party talks [on its nuclear program], the restart of the negotiations, which have been stalled for a year, is at hand,” a Korean official said Monday. “Vice President Cheney needs to say something reassuring to North Korea.”
Since we can’t say “peace is at hand,” or “peace in our time,” we need some less daring famous last words. “Talks are at hand.” Fine, but talks have been at hand for a decade; accomplishment of something in those talks isn’t.
More here. There is even one reason for qualified praise for Chung:
Chung said he will use the sixth round of Red Cross talks slated for this August to begin a full-fledged discussion with the North on the return of hundreds of South Korean soldiers who were believed to have been abducted to North Korea and prisoners of war during and after the 1950-1953 Korean War.
My post on the April visit of two of these POWs to Washington here, if you haven’t seen it yet.
Now, I said “qualified” praise for a reason–Chung’s under political duress. Oppo leader Park Geun-Hye has also been talking about the issue, arguably for reasons that are more expedient than principled, but in a way that certainly sounds more credible than Chung. I recommend this entire article, in fact, because it might even lead you to believe that the Grand National Party is finding the voice it needs to present an alternative vision and seize the agenda from a demoralized and divided Uri. Money quote:
“The government must boldly bring up the issues of military prisoners, dispersed families and North Korean defectors, and North Korea should make pledges and hold to them, in return for our aid,” said Park chairwoman of the main opposition Grand National Party, in a speech to the Seoul Foreign Correspondents’ Club at the Korea Press Foundation.
Criticizing the government for its “hesitant and weak approach” toward the North, Park asserted the need for a firm and transparent North Korean policy to keep up the current optimistic atmosphere after President Roh Moo-hyun’s successful summit with the U.S. President George W. Bush and the reopening of talks between the two Koreas.
Could this be the end of the GNP’s “Sunshine Lite,” and a movement toward a Korean “hawk engagement?” How long before we learn of her involvement in some orphanage-land-speculation scandal?
Roh-begone
Having taken on both Vice President Cheney and the opposition, you’d think that Chung would have enough problems on his hands. Yet it seems that up to this point, I’d managed not to notice that Chung is on the outs with Roh himself. That fact came out in the course of Roh’s latest self-pitying Hamlet act in front of the cameras, something he tends to do after political trouncings. Have a look at this cryptic little paragraph from yesterday’s Joongang Ilbo:
Mr. Roh opposed party moves to hold the current party leadership responsible and to entice former party leaders such as Unification Minister Chung Dong-young and Health Minister Kim Keun-tae to return to the party. “If they [Mr. Chung and Mr. Kim] come back to the party now, they will only get hurt rather than showing leadership,” Mr. Roh said.
Under the circumstances, you have to wonder whether Chung really represents the President of the Republic of Korea. It seems more plausible that this is just the latest of Chung’s machinations to build up his base for his next run at the presidency. It’s another sign of growing fissures in the Korean left, even as the GNP appears to have acquired an agenda:
Feeling a sense of urgency for the shaky governing party, President Roh Moo-hyun sent a letter both scolding and encouraging Uri Party members yesterday.
“I regret to see that the Uri Party is shaking now, and state affairs are difficult,” Mr. Roh wrote in the letter. “A political party that does not have minimum regulations and discipline cannot receive public support.”
Mr. Roh’s letter came amid dropping popularity of the governing party and allegations that his aides and other Uri lawmakers are involved in several scandals.
“The decisive reasons that made circumstances difficult for the party are the loss of ethical trust by the people, a loss of influence and fading power to hold party members together,” the letter said.
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