Archive for July, 2006
Posted by joshua on July 29, 2006 at 6:09 pm · Filed under NK Economics, Anti-Americanism, U.S. & Korea
The South Korean government has concluded that its proposed Free Trade Agreement with the United States has a P.R. problem. Workshop to be announced; head-scratching to follow. Let’s hope whatever discussion comes of this will be more productive than previous warnings about CIA microphones disguises as insects.
Thus far, the government has been afraid to take on the extremists, thugs, and demagogues who have seized control of this debate, often forcibly, but if those people comprise a significant portion of the last 14% of Koreans to support this government, my hopes are not high. For all of my ambivalence on the military alliance (and its ground component in particular), I’m convinced that an FTA would be a good thing for both countries. So, apparently, are most of the South Korean people.
Because the majority of Koreans can capable of seeing the issue in a more sensible light, it’s not too late to save the FTA. Unfortunately, it’s almost a sure thing that President Roh Moo Hyun won’t find the political will to do it.
Posted by joshua on July 29, 2006 at 11:23 am · Filed under North Korea, Media Criticism, Miscellaneous
[Update: Yonhap reports that this year’s Arirang Festival has been cancelled. Scroll down for details.]
I haven’t seen the film, nor have I seen the promos for it, but this sounds like a fair criticism to me:
You know you’re looking at propaganda when you see a cute little white dog prancing through the apartment of the physicist father of 11-year-old Kim Song-yon - as if dogs come with the nice kitchen and furniture for middle-class North Koreans.
Or, judging from the straight-faced observation that “North Korea is divided into three classes - workers, peasants and intellectuals”, and all are treated equally, are we to believe that all North Koreans have cute little doggies, even those so driven by starvation that in truth they would die for a nice slab of dog meat?
Don Kirk, writing in the Asia Times, notes that the Discovery Channel gave it tons of publicity and a prime-time slot. I wonder why “Seoul Train” and “Abduction” (trailer / review / review) can’t get this kind of air play. I’ve really never considered useful idiots like the “Korean Friendship Association” losers to be any cause for undue alarm, but the producers of this film may leave plenty of viewers with a very distorted view about North Korea, just as plenty of views were once distorted by “Olympia” and “Triumph of the Will.”
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Posted by joshua on July 28, 2006 at 6:49 pm · Filed under NK Economics, Six-Party Talks, Counterfeiting, Washington Views
“You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone.”
– Al Capone
In an interview with Radio Free Asia (Korean only), Raphael Perl of the Congressional Research Service suggests exactly what I suspected about polite requests from U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Stuart Levey to crack down on North Korean money laundering — the polite requests are backed by some powerful veiled threats:
One option available to the US government, although this is quite an extreme option, would be in effect to kick banks that facilitate N. Korean criminal activity out of the international banking system.
That sounds a lot like other things Perl, an expert on North Korea’s illegal revenue, has said before, and suggests that the U.S. might use PATRIOT 311 against other banks, as it did with Banco Delta Asia, and with devastating effect on both BDA, Kim Jong Il, and his business associates. In fact, you have to suspect that those comments were aimed at someone whose cooperation the U.S. government isn’t getting, and leave it up to you to guess who.
North Korea is pretending not to care:
Earlier Friday, North Korea said it does not care about the United States’ move to impose additional sanctions against Pyongyang.
Undersecretary of the Treasury Stuart Levey said in a telephone interview with Yonhap News Agency on Thursday that the U.N. member states should freeze the assets of 11 North Korean entities that Washington designated last year as proliferators of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, as the first step in implementing the recent U.N. resolution against Pyongyang for its missile tests.
“It shows Washington’s intention of putting more pressure on us. We do not care about it,” Jung Sung-il, spokesman of the North Korean delegation, said.
That statement came in the context of six five ten-party talks in Malaysia, now comprising just about every nation in Taepodong range.
After years of preparing its people to fight uniformed Yankee hordes, the regime’s undoing could be a few unassuming men in pinstripes. One can hope that North Korea’s privileged classes would not be willing to share the misery and deprivation that those in the countryside and decayed industrial towns have felt for decades.
Follow the money.
Postscript: Is this, or is this not, the coolest news grapic ever?
Posted by joshua on July 28, 2006 at 6:05 pm · Filed under Uncategorized, Six-Party Talks, WMD, Diplomacy, "United" Nations
Via Gateway Pundit, video clips of John Bolton vs. John Kerry on North Korea policy. Bolton is clearly having difficulty containing his impatience with Kerry. Me, too. Pompous-yet-shallow is not an endearing combination.
Posted by joshua on July 28, 2006 at 3:47 pm · Filed under Uncategorized, NK Economics, Appeasement, WMD, Famine & Food Aid, Human Rights, Humor/Satire, Human Trafficking
Yonhap News gives us this head-scratcher in the course of reporting on North Korea’s new demand for its missile launches not to affect the Kaesong Industrial Complex:
Nevertheless, the joint industrial complex has been a burden for the South Korean government as there are concerns that a portion of the wages paid to North Korean workers there could be used to develop missiles. (emphasis mine)
I’m in awe. Those people labor long hours in sweatshops for a pittance and still find the strength and riches to spend their free time ordering gyroscopes and thrust vectors online? I had no idea intercontinental rocket science was such a popular garage hobby for North Koreans.
Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok, Seoul’s highest official on North Korean affairs, said on Monday that “there was no way of knowing where the money that goes into North Korea (through inter-Korean economic projects) is used.”
OK, but shouldn’t the South Koreans at least ask those North Korean workers which of them is responsible for sneaking out and building missiles all night? Or would that violate some kind of “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy?
But he said the government had no plans to suspend the economic projects, saying it was unable to interfere with private business ventures at least for now.
Depending on which report you believe, that is. At least Minister Lee has his priorities straight, something that can also be said for anyone who allocates a significant portion of the national treasury to praise a dead god for granting them another year of famine, slavery, and disaster.
Posted by joshua on July 27, 2006 at 3:53 pm · Filed under Unintended Humor, Appeasement, Korean Society
Ladies and gentlemen, I present the entire Sunshine Policy in microcosm, and at Kaesong, no less, where the North Koreans are teaching their South Korean counterparts about capitalism (not a misprint). Lesson one: caveat emptor.
I never cease to be amazed by how gullible the greedy can be at times.
Posted by joshua on July 27, 2006 at 3:05 pm · Filed under Korean Politics, Human Rights, Korean Society, Activism
Cardinal Kim Soo-Hwan seems to have very little use for President Roh Moo-Hyun and Unifiction Minister Lee Jong-Seok, and he’ll get neither an argument nor any points for originality from me there. The most important words he spoke were for the Korean right, which has been much too busy boycotting the National Assembly to use its seats there to propose a better direction for Korea. I hope the GNP (and everyone else) heeds the Cardinal’s words:
Cardinal Kim also urged the conservative party to be “more active and vocal in inter-Korean relations, with love for the North Koreans.”
I’m one who believes that religion has a legitimate role in politics — injecting conscience into the national debate. Rather than restart that endless discussion of when the slope toward theocracy has become too steep or slippery, I would instead ask a question more firmly grounded in the reality of South Korea in 2006 — whether this guy deserves to be the face of Korea’s religious conscience.
Didn’t think so.
Posted by joshua on July 27, 2006 at 1:24 pm · Filed under Unintended Humor, Japan & Korea, "United" Nations, History
[Update: Perfectly on cue, North Korea accuses Israel of “barbaric genocide.” There are times I think they read this blog.]
“[This] is a reckless act, an inhumane act unprecedented in the world, and a dire human right violation!”
We’re referring to none of the things that have probably crossed your mind by now, but Japan’s decision to deny entry visas to five North Koreans who sought to retrieve the remains of relatives who died in Japan 60+ years ago, and to participate in anti-Japanese demonstrations for extra fun (sorry, lost that link). I’d never suggest that relatives should be denied the remains of their loved ones, which is why I consider it perverse that anyone would charge $100,000 per set for their return.
Oh, and North Korea filed a formal complaint with the U.N. over this. Hope someone forwards it to Vitit Muntarbhorn.
Posted by joshua on July 27, 2006 at 1:22 pm · Filed under Human Rights, Washington Views, U.S. & Korea
[Thanks to a reader for forwarding; this is an excerpt.]
In the course of the struggle, our good ally, South Korea, sustained horrendous losses, both military and civilian, at the hands of the communist forces. Yet so much of the suffering that came to South Koreans in that period of war has been the daily experience of their brothers and sisters in the North for the more than 50 years since. North Korea is a scene of merciless repression, chronic scarcity and mass starvation, with political prisoners kept in camps the size of major cities. President Bush has observed that satellite photos of the Korean Peninsula at night show the North in almost complete darkness. South Korea, on the other hand, is bathed in light -– a vibrant, enterprising society, a prosperous democracy sharing ties of commerce and cooperation with many nations, a peaceful and talented people who have built the third-largest economy in Asia. In the words of President Roh, South Korea, “once an aid-receiving country, has now been transformed into an aid-giving country that is contributing to world peace.” (Applause.)
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Posted by joshua on July 27, 2006 at 6:45 am · Filed under Human Rights, Refugees, Activism
Lot of great stuff over at the LiNK site, including a video. Keep scrolling. If you live in Seoul, Andy Jackson is asking for passing along LiNK’s request for volunteers to teach English to North Korean refugees (I use the term intentionally). It’s easy to miss the potential importance of this, but English is key to connecting North Koreans to the greater world and allowing them to describe their experiences in their own words.
Posted by joshua on July 27, 2006 at 5:35 am · Filed under Korean Politics
It lost all four contests in yesterday’s bi-election. Three seats went to the GNP; one to a Democratic Party candidate who spearheaded his party’s effort to impeach Roh:
The ruling Uri Party suffered another crushing defeat in Wednesday’s parliamentary by-elections. No Uri Party candidates won in the four constituencies of Seongbuk-eul and Songpa-gap, both in Seoul, Sosa in Gyeonggi Province and Masan-gap in South Gyeongsang Province. That means the ruling party has secured no seat in parliamentary by-elections since 2005.
So much for that backlash. Turnout was at an all-time low, which is the natural consequence of the parties not standing for anything particularly compelling or uplifting.
Among the Uri candidates defeated was former Roh mouthpiece Kim Man Soo.
Posted by joshua on July 27, 2006 at 5:23 am · Filed under NK Economics, Appeasement, WMD, U.S. & Korea
[Several very interesting updates here; scroll down.]
Recently, it has often seemed that different parts of South Korea have been applying different policies to the same issue. Take South Korea’s response to the new U.N. Security Council Resolution 1695, which requires countries and companies to exercise “vigilance” in making sure they don’t supply North Korea with the components or funds to build more missiles. UniFiction Minister Lee Jong-Seok has opted for a “don’t ask, don’t tell” interpretation of that resolution, but yesterday, Korea’s Ministry of Commerce seemed to be interpreting the resolution much more strictly:
The Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy has written to some 80,000 export-import companies here asking them to heed the UN Security Council resolution on North Korea. It warns Resolution 1695 may hurt firms that export “dual use” goods that can be used both for military and civil purposes.
That’s because South Korean firms that violate the resolution face a panoply of potential secondary sanctions by the United States, Japan, and other nations. The most likely would be asset-freezing under Executive Order 13,382. One wonders how this relates to Stuart Levy’s recent visit.
“The resolution will strengthen sanctions imposed by the international community against exports to North Korea,” the statement says. “When it comes to goods coming out of the joint-Korea Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North, a thorough review is needed to determine whether they violate the resolution,” it adds, suggesting that the government is hard at work on the matter. “We urge companies here to take special precautions so they do not engage in illegal exports of strategic materials to North Korea either directly or via a third country,” the e-mail says.
So we have a difference of interpretation within the South Korean government.
Clearly, this is going to have a disparate impact on Kaesong, and it leads to why all those who oppose Kaesong ought to support a Free Trade Agreement that excludes it (today, the Korean government is again hinting that it may drop Kaesong from its FTA demands). If every non-Kaesong product made in South Korea enjoys a heavy U.S. tariff preference over its Kaesong-made competitor, Kaesong instantly loses any advantage that its lower wages might offer. If there’s the additional risk that firms bringing dual-use technology into Kaesong could face sanctions under U.N. 1695, Kaesong suddenly becomes a very risky proposition. Finally, firms whose “wage” payments are suspected of funding North Korean missile development could face U.S. or international economic sanctions, even asset freezes. It all brings to mind Ross Perot’s infamous evocation of that “giant sucking sound.”
The prognosis for Kaesong has never been this bleak. The world should celebrate that.
Update: Kim Jong Il, Unplugged
The Joongang Ilbo is reporting that the United States Treasury Department is making swift (maybe even stunningly swift) progress toward disconnecting Kim Jong Il from his financial lifelines (background here). Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intel Stuary Levy has apparently secured promises from Singapore and Vietnam to “cooperate in isolating North Korea from international financial channels.” More importantly, White House Spokesman Tony Snow is now confirming that the Bank of China’s Macau branch has frozen North Korean assets, a move of gargantuan significance.
Despite reports, citing a Yonhap interview, that Levy had “warned” South Korea about cash flow from Kaesong, Levy didn’t really do that here:
He said his talks with South Korean officials focused on “general concerns” to ensure that money wasn’t going to North Korea’s weapons buildup. Contrary to some press reports, he said he did not personally raise issues about inter-Korean economic cooperation projects.
Treasury’s spokeswoman Molly Millerwise said during the interview that there was “overreporting” in the press about the U.S. taking issue with inter-Korean business.
Levy went into more detail on his interpretation of Resolution 1695, however, and the effect may be the same in the end:
The undersecretary said the U.S. was discussing with its allies how to properly interpret the Security Council resolution. Some argue that any and all money flowing into North Korea can be misused to bolster its missiles and WMD and therefore even routine business transactions should be severed with North Korea.
Levey said in theory the argument is right.
“Money is fungible so one would have to be careful to make sure that even the best proceeds of routine trade transactions could benefit the WMD or missile programs,” he said. But he added there was “a long way to go” to reach that conclusion.
The Senate has also passed the new North Korea Nonproliferation Act, which I humbly opined here would have little practical effect on the current state of North Korea-related sanctions and law enforcement operations. It’s mainly enabling legislation for Resolution 1695 (the one thing I called wrong here, because I assumed that anything coming out of the U.N. would be meaningless).
If you want to follow the action that matters, keep an eye on Treasury.
Posted by joshua on July 26, 2006 at 6:16 am · Filed under Korean Politics, Appeasement
Yoon Young-Kwan isn’t the only former member of his administration attacking him today, but these two criticisms seem particularly spot-on:
He fumed at North Korea, calling Pyongyang “high-handed” in its attitude while it accepts handouts from Seoul. “Economic cooperation,” he added, “should instead help a market economy develop in North Korea.”
He continued, “Emotional nationalism appears to rule our society at the moment, because an outdated resistance spirit and passive world view are rampant. Diplomacy is something you do with cool-headed calculation, not with emotions.”
Yes, I would favor engagement with North Korea if there were any evidence that it was reaching the people through the curtain of fear or leveraging needed reforms. By making the aid unconditional, South Korea simply prolongs the suffering of the people.
The timing is interesting, given that there will be bi-elections for four vacant National Assembly seats today.
Posted by joshua on July 26, 2006 at 6:08 am · Filed under Korean Politics, Anti-Americanism, Korean Society, Korean Education, The Fifth Column
One reason I don’t think the North Koreans would invade South Korea is the simple fact that their infiltration of the South has been so successful as to render war unnecessarily strenuous. Now, the powerful and well funded Korean Teachers’ Union — remember them? — is caught in the act of flogging juche to its members. The ultimate recipients would have been South Korean kids. Although the KTU didn’t disclose the source of its information, this should have been a clue:
Quoting a U.S-based sociologist, it also hails North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s Songun or military-first policy as a “unique achievement.”
Strictly speaking, that’s true. I can’t think of one other regime that’s managed to starve 10% of its people to death while its elite drive Mercedez sedans and quaff cognac. How this societal model appeals to socialists escapes me.
South Korea is in serious need of educational reform, or a least another perspective. More on South Korea’s Fifth Column here.
Posted by joshua on July 25, 2006 at 7:12 pm · Filed under Washington Views
Whoever replaces retiring Rep. Henry Hyde as Chairman will have big shoes to fill, particularly when it comes to Hyde’s blunt moral clarity on North Korea and those who would appease its regime, as well as on Japan’s need to come to terms with its own past. Five candidates are said to be seeking the Chairmanship, presuming that the Republicans hold the House in November. I will express strong opinions on just those of whom I know through the (admittedly narrow) lens of Korea policy.
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