Archive for April, 2010
Posted by Joshua on April 30, 2010 at 7:14 am · Filed under Korean Politics, Media Criticism, The Fifth Column, Fiskings, Cheonan Incident
I expect the Hanky and its fellow travelers to be committed 24/7 tools of North Korea, but for God’s sake, people, your country is in mourning. Is this really the time?
People’s Solitary for Participatory Democracy (PSPD) General Secretary Kim Min-young offered his diagnosis of the situation, saying, “If the government had faithfully executed the existing agreement between North Korea and South Korea for the peaceful use of the waters near the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea, things would not have escalated into a confrontation scenario.”
Implicitly, this is an agreement that the North Koreans did it, even as it argues that they did it because President Lee forced them to. What the “General Secretary” is really saying is that the responsibility for what he assumes to have been a deliberate attack lies with the South Korean government for protecting its territory rather than surrendering it. He is justifying a sneak attack just off the shores of an island North Korea explicitly ceded in the Korean War Armistice agreement. One could not make such an argument on the day South Korea buried 40 of its sailors without having lost sight of how the needless theft of their lives has profoundly aggrieved thousands of people who loved them, people who will spend the rest of their lives missing them.
Following the 2007 Inter-Korean Summit, late President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il made an agreement to establish a ‘special West Sea zone of peace and cooperation,’ including the establishment of joint fishing zones and peaceful waters and the construction of a special economic zone. But the Lee Myung-bak administration has effectively refused to respect or implement the October 4 2007 Summit Declaration that includes this agreement. Former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun said, “They need to reconsider how to carry out policy for the stable management of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.”
And what would any Hankyoreh editorial be without a choice quote from Cheong Wook-Sik, possibly Kim Jong Il’s most brazen South Korean apologist and stooge? The fact that the Hanky describes this marionette as an “expert” really tells you all you need to know about the Hanky’s more common tactic of citing “experts” without even telling you who they are:
Some experts expressed concern that the Lee government and the public are placing too much weight on “keeping the peace” by strengthening the alert against North Korea or building up military forces. Peace Network representative Cheong Wook-sik said, “If this incident simply leads South Korea to focus on simplifying its rules of engagement and beef up its aggression and forces, the situation of military confrontation between North Korea and South Korea could worsen as this combines with the North Korea’s response.”
Got that? He’s worried about South Korea “beef[ing] up its aggression.”
I’ll let you read the rest on your own and decide for yourself if you can actually believe you’re reading this, much less reading it while the country is in mourning over the murder — yes, I said it — of 40 of its sailors.
Posted by Joshua on April 30, 2010 at 5:50 am · Filed under Cheonan Incident
With few to know and none to weep
For faith so brave, a soul to keep
A silent grave in oceans deep.
And when the end has come at last
And unfilled shadows heaven casts,
Remember we who served and fell
And to the hosts of heaven tell,
Bring home my boys who loved so well.
– A Sailor’s Eulogy
[Getty Images, via N.Y. Times]
[Getty Images, via N.Y. Times]
[EPA, via Times Online]
[AP]
[AP, Jung Yeon-Je]
[AP, Jung Yeon-Je]
[Reuters, Jung Yeon-Je]
[Reuters, Shin Hyeon-Jong]
[AP, Ahn Young-Joon]
Posted by Dan Bielefeld on April 29, 2010 at 10:17 pm · Filed under China, Human Rights, Activism
Just got back from the demonstration across from the Chinese Embassy in Seoul. For those who have been wondering, they said the balloon launch will be at 11 a.m. tomorrow (Saturday) at Freedom Bridge. Full schedule available here.
I’m off to the PSCORE event from 1 to 5:30 p.m. (Friday) at the Press Center in Gwanghwamun.
But first, here’s a flier for the screening of Crossing in the basement of the chapel building at Yonsei Unversity at 4 p.m. I hope to get there in time to hear some of the Yonsei students who are originally from North Korea tell their stories.
This weekend I’ll try to get some photos up from the rest of the week. In the meantime, here are a few from this morning.
Posted by Joshua on April 28, 2010 at 7:23 pm · Filed under NK Economics, Kim Jong Il, Sanctions
The Chosun Ilbo reports that despite international sanctions, Kim Jong Il still manages to import ample quantities of rice and infant formula add “between $200 and $300 million every year” to his personal slush fund:
With the money, North Korea would be able to import between 400,000 to 600,000 tons of rice, which would be enough to cover half the country’s food shortage of 1 million tons of rice per year.
What? Since when isn’t cognac food anymore? Isn’t it an agricultural product you ingest? Well???
The North is estimated to have imported more than $100 million worth of high-quality liquor, cars and other luxury goods in 2008. And also on the list are pet dogs, which the Kim family are said to adore. Kim buys dozens of German shepherds, Shih Tzus and other breeds from France and Switzerland every year.
You’re on your own with that one.
Key departments within the Workers Party are pressuring agencies under their control to offer “loyalty funds” for the successor, a source familiar with North Korean affairs said. “A separate company has been established under the leadership of Kim Jong-un to secretly amass foreign currency.”
The source said Kim senior uses his slush fund to finance his expensive tastes, build monuments in his own honor and buy gifts for his loyal aides. Faced with increasing difficulties bolstering his slush funds under international sanctions, the Kim is said to have issued an ultimatum to his top officials in February, saying from now on he would judge their loyalty based on the amount they contribute to the fund.
I can scarcely believe that Barack Obama, Nobel Laureate, Eurotrash cult figure, and healer of all that is nasty in our world could be such a peace-hating crypto-neocon who persists in imposing his imperialist, hegemonic sanctions and interfering with the sovereign right of the Sun of the Nation to be a river unto his people:
Before nation founder Kim Il-sung’s birthday on April 15 this year, Kim imported around 200 high-end cars from China at a cost of some $5 million. A North Korean source said secret funds are also used to finance nuclear missile development and other state projects Kim Jong-il orders personally.
The Chosun estimates that the Emperor’s Slush Fund is worth about $4 billion — on a similar scale to that of Saddam, Marcos, or Mobutu — but I’d be skeptical of any particular estimates. I’ve seen others, and they vary widely. The Chosun also also reports that most of the cash comes from Bureau 39’s various criminal enterprises and (sit down for this) “the joint tourism business with South Korea,” and possibly North Korea’s state development bank.
As regular readers know by now, there are some whose alternative reality would be difficult to reconcile with reports like these, who insist that “[t]he persistence of famine [in North Korea] is due to economic sanctions led by the U.S. and its refusal to end the 50-year Korean War,” not any cause that can be attributed to an “evil dictator.” After all, “North Korea lacked the foreign currency to buy food on the global market,” right?
Right?
Posted by Joshua on April 28, 2010 at 5:45 am · Filed under Anju Links
South Korea is considering cutting aid to, and trade with North Korea in response to the North’s seizure of assets at Kumgang:
The government is reportedly considering limiting the volume of agricultural and marine products from North Korea or tightening regulation of imports in other ways. Certain North Korean items, such as sand, hard coal and mushrooms, already require the unification minister’s approval each time someone wants to bring them into the South. Seoul could expand the number of such items, making the import process more troublesome.
Currently, South Korean materials going into the joint industrial park in the North’s border town of Gaeseong and products rolled out from factories there account for more than 60 percent of inter-Korean trade. Last month’s inter-Korean trade volume amounted to $202 million, 63 percent of which were goods going in and out of the Gaeseong park.
If that’s so, it suggests that the South may have something else in mind as a response to the sinking of the Cheonan, which looks more like a deliberate North Korean attack with each day’s revelations. If military options are widely acknowledged to be risky and impractical, then perhaps President Lee is thinking in terms of political subversion. That would be good.
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Affirmative action for North Korean defectors?
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Just when I think nothing I hear about North Korea’s prison camps can shock me anymore, something does:
Women at the event wore dark glasses to conceal their identities but were unable to hide their tears. One recalled how she languished at the Kaechon political prison camp for 28 years after being taken into custody at 13 for guilt by association with a crime committed by one of her relatives. She said, “I saw a starving woman eat the flesh of her son who had died of a disease.”
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The regime complains bitterly when stories like these are told outside North Korea, but its survival depends on these stories spreading inside North Korea, at least to a degree. If word didn’t get around about the camps and the horrors within, the regime couldn’t keep its subjects in a state of terror, too afraid to contemplate opposing the system:
Oh Gyeung Seob, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute, was just one of the speakers in a symposium, “Anti-Human Rights in North Korean Political Prison Camps,” hosted by Korean Peninsula Forum and sponsored by the Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights (NKNet) at the National Human Rights Commission of Korea. According to Oh, North Korean prison camps are “the core institution in the reign of terror which maintains totalitarian social control”.
Oh continued, “Violence is the method North Korean regime mostly depends on to maintain its power. They use the National Security Agency and prison camps to create a climate of fear among the governing elite and citizens, and to induce obedience through that fear.”
“The National Security Agency conducts surveillance to generate fear during the process of uncovering, investigating, punishing and purging political prisoners. Prison camps create more fear by treating existing political prisoners inhumanly,” he explained, connecting the security forces and prison camp roles in totalitarian North Korea.
Particularly, he explained, “The North Korean system is structured around the fear spread by the existence of political prison camps, meaning that public political opposition from citizens is impossible. Every person and the people around them are harmed by the system of guilt by association; therefore they suppress their political opposition of their own accord.” [Daily NK]
Posted by Joshua on April 27, 2010 at 6:34 am · Filed under NK Military, ROK Military
Via the Joongang Ilbo, North Korea’s on-the-shelf invasion oplan no longer calls for invading all of South Korea, but in recognition of stronger U.S. and South Korean military capabilities, now calls for quickly occupying Seoul and then negotiating favorable terms.
With the new plan, the North would concentrate its early fire on Seoul and neighboring areas, where most of South Korea’s social and economic infrastructure is located.
“North Korea would try to occupy Seoul early,” the source said. “And from there, it could either try to go farther south, or try to negotiate [for a cease-fire] from an advantageous position.”
I’m sure Selig Harrison would call this progress.
A military expert who requested anonymity said the North took cues from the Gulf War in 1991 and Iraq War in 2003. Iraqi forces had armored vehicles similar to the North’s, but they were destroyed by the U.S. military’s precision strike weapons. North Korea, in other words, has concluded that if its mechanized units engaged in old-fashioned combat without extra help, they would be no match for the more sophisticated U.S. weapons systems.
As part of the change, North Korea has bolstered its frontline mechanized corps with extra mechanized divisions, the military source said. Also, the frontline corps have each received an extra light infantry division, and light infantry battalions on the front have been expanded to regiments.
There may also be a recognition here of North Korea’s logistical limitations — that is, its general inability to sustain an invasion with long, exposed supply lines.
I certainly don’t claim to be a military expert, but I’ve studied enough history to know how other armies have beaten back similar attacks from Kursk, to the Seelow Heights, to An Loc, to Grozny, even when badly outnumbered by their attackers. History shows that these blitzkrieg tactics bog down quickly when thrown into restricted terrain with well-prepared defenses held by a well-trained, well-armed opponent. That’s particularly true when the defender holds air supremacy. Thus, even the reduced expectations seem unrealistic. North Korea could probably do severe damage to Seoul on Day One, but by Day Two, most of its longer-range artillery capable of hitting Seoul would be silenced, and allied air power would be seeking out North Korea’s more numerous, shorter-range tactical artillery sites and its more elusive and dangerous short-range ballistic missile launchers.
It’s one thing to damage a city, another thing to take it. If this report is accurate, the North Korean strategy still depends on the use of mechanized and motorized conventional forces, which would have to cover 40 miles of highly obstructed terrain with no air cover and under assault from American and South Korean air power. North Korea has few heavily armored main battle tanks, and even these stood up poorly to such light infantry weapons as the RPG-7 in Afghanistan and Chechnya. The majority of North Korea’s tanks are lighter amphibious models designed for the easy fording of rivers, but with such light armor protection that even .50 caliber machine guns would grind them up.
Again, assuming that this report is accurate, it suggests that South Korea ought to accelerate long-delayed plans to upgrade its helicopter gunships, the most efficient way to destroy vehicles in crowded urban areas. It also suggests that the ROK should invest in a large number of inexpensive anti-tank weapons for its infantry and plenty of close-quarter training in their use.
With all that said, even if the new report is a case of a new hypervigilance, that’s certainly a healthier attitude than the dreamy complacency that has dominated South Korea recently. I take for granted that a North Korean invasion could be stopped before it reached Seoul, but whether it would be — and with a minimum of casualties — depends on how well the ROK army trains and equips itself.
Posted by Joshua on April 26, 2010 at 8:57 pm · Filed under Human Rights, Activism, Washington Views, U.S. Politics
Dear People of both South and North Korea, Members of the North Korea Freedom Coalition, Ms. Scholte of the Defense Forum Foundation, Members of the NGO Human Rights Community, Pastors, North Korean Defectors, Abductee Families, Members of the Korean-American Community and Friends of Korea:
It is particularly fitting and proper that this year’s annual North Korea Freedom Week will be held for the first time on the Korean peninsula. This week of events also comes at a particularly critical time as we seek answers to the tragic sinking last month of the South Korean naval vessel, Cheonan, and look forward to honoring veterans during the upcoming sixtieth anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War in June.
I have joined with Representative Sam Johnson as a co-sponsor of legislation commemorating the anniversary of the commencement of that tragic war, due to North Korean treachery, which nonetheless formed an unbreakable bond between two allies, the United States and the Republic of Korea. As a friend and ally, I also wish to state that I fully agree with President Lee Myung-bak’s recent statement of the need for a resolute response once the cause of the South Korean ship’s sinking is determined. The families of the forty-six dead South Korean sailors deserve no less than a full accounting.
North Korea’s refusal to allow a transparent and thorough verification regime for inspection of its nuclear program led to a complete breakdown of the Six-Party Talks last year. This followed the premature and unwise decision by the United States in 2008 to remove North Korea from the State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted by Joshua on April 26, 2010 at 9:57 am · Filed under Ling/Lee Incident
You know, I was just thinking that it’s been a while since we’ve had a nice flame war over this.
The network announced Sunday that Laura Ling and Euna Lee will tell their story in a 30-minute episode that will kick off the fourth season of the documentary series “Vanguard” on May 19. The journalists, both staffers for the series, were held captive by the North Koreans for more than four months after they briefly entered the country by crossing a frozen river at the Chinese border in March 2009. They were sentenced to 12 years of hard labor before their pardon and release was negotiated with the help of former President Bill Clinton.
At the time of their capture, the women were working on a story about human trafficking. Their detention created a tense international incident that drew in top White House officials and sparked vigils around the country on their behalf.
The special, “Captive in North Korea,” features interviews with Ling, Lee and their producer, Mitch Koss, who have until now not spoken on camera about their experience. The episode, reported by fellow “Vanguard” correspondents Adam Yamaguchi and Mariana Van Zeller, will also include footage of their emotional reunion with their colleagues. [L.A. Times, Show Tracker Blog]
Posted by Joshua on April 26, 2010 at 5:47 am · Filed under Technology, Subversion
After this post on DIY cell phone base stations generated interest from readers, I followed one suggestion in the comments to see whether satellite phones have gotten any cheaper recently. They have, and how. This model is currently selling for under $235 new on Amazon.com.
I have to think that they could be acquired for even less in volume through sources in India or China. Can anyone out there find a better price?
Posted by Dan Bielefeld on April 25, 2010 at 11:18 am · Filed under Human Rights, Refugees
North Korea Freedom Week 2010 is underway! At 3 p.m. Sunday the ribbon-cutting ceremony was held for an exhibit on North Korean Human Rights Exhibit that will run all week in two large rooms on the first floor of the Seoul Press Center.
The first room primarily focuses on Gang Gil-su and his extended family, who lived in hiding in China for about three years from 1999-2001 after escaping North Korea. On display are dozens of crayon drawings depicting their recollections of life in North Korea, as well as their diaries, letters, and thousands upon thousands of origami cranes they folded to pass the time.
The following drawing by Jang Han-gil was entitled 먹을게 없어 나무껍질 벗기는 어머니” (There was nothing to eat so (a) mother is peeling bark off a tree.).
The pile on the ground and the display case behind it contain thousands of origami cranes. The sign said 500,000! While i wonder if that could possibly be accurate, there sure was a great number of them. Also, they wrote a brief note on the back of each sheet of paper before folding it.
The second room had artwork by another artist, some multimedia, and on one wall hung airline tickets, calling cards, train tickets, etc., used by — if I understand correctly — activists and refugees they were helping.
Keep reading after the break for pictures of the opening.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted by Joshua on April 25, 2010 at 11:16 am · Filed under Anju Links
The North Korean authorities are hunting for those clandestine correspondents who give us those independent reports about events in North Korea as if the regime’s very existence depends on it:
A radio broadcaster run by North Korean defectors here reported this week that security guards in Hoeryeong, North Hamgyeong Province, directed its residents to turn in photos of their family members who have been missing from 2005. If the families say that these photos have been lost, security guards pay an unannounced visit to their homes to find out whether they are lying to them or not. [….] The move indicates that the North is making efforts to root out potential defectors-turned-democracy fighters with fear tactics. [Korea Times]
The desperation means those correspondents are having an effect. Unfortunately, some of the correspondents and their families have already paid the ultimate price for smuggling the truth across the borders of their homeland, and it’s certain that more will pay it. But by pushing even more phones into North Korea, and by giving the networks that move goods and information even more money, it would be possible to overload the system’s capacity to find all of the networks and correspondents operating from within North Korea. My guess is, the regime knows that. Hence the desperation, and the brutality.
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I fail to see the down side of this: North Korea conducts an “inspection” of Kaesong, as it did shortly before confiscating Kumgang, and then hints that it may “entirely reevaluate” the complex’s existence. The North Koreans really don’t have to make good on a threat like that to completely destroy Kaesong’s attractiveness to potential investors, but please don’t interpret this is as a complaint. If North Korea really is prepared to cut off one of its largest sources of external funding, I may have underestimated its subversive effect on the workers there. Or, the North Koreans may actually believe they’re doing the South Korean a big favor.
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Meanwhile, the South Koreans aren’t taking North Korea’s confiscation of its assets at Kumgang with degree of deference we’d come to expect of them in the past:
“The KNTO will not accept the decision to seize its assets in the resort, which is a violation of investment rules and respect for property rights,” [the head of the Korea National Tourism Organization] said.
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Park Nam Ki: Dead or exiled? In any other country on earth, we’d be reasonably sure of the answer to this by now.
Posted by Joshua on April 24, 2010 at 7:44 am · Filed under Technology, Subversion
[A]n open-source project called OpenBTS is proving that almost anyone can cheaply run a network with parts from a home-supply or auto-supply store. Cell-phone users within such a network can place calls to each other and–if the network is connected to the Internet–to people anywhere in the world.
The project’s cofounder, David Burgess, hopes that OpenBTS will mean easier and cheaper access to cellular service in remote parts of the world, including hard-to-reach locations like oil rigs and poor areas without much infrastructure. [link]
Does anyone out there have enough technological knowledge to tell me what it would take to adapt this idea to North Korea?
Posted by Joshua on April 23, 2010 at 6:58 pm · Filed under NK Economics, Famine & Food Aid
I knew Onsung was a shit hole, but wow. Just, wow. Watch it here — English subtitles and all — and read about it in the New York Times.
Don’t miss the corrupt officials shaking down the merchants, or the South Korean Red Cross aid for sale. We’ve seen other video showing American aid being sold, too, as well as previous reports of South Korean food aid being confiscated and diverted for military use.
Could individual corrupt officials be responsible for all of this diversion? They could be, on a smaller scale, but large-scale diversion suggests that the “socialist” regime takes what it needs for itself, then sells the rest in the markets to raise cash. It’s yet another reason to refuse to send more food aid unless we’re able to do the only kind of monitoring that we can really be sure about — nutritional surveys of the recipients.
Posted by Joshua on April 23, 2010 at 7:35 am · Filed under Famine & Food Aid
I’ve generally been underwhelmed by the performance of the Human Rights Industry when it comes to North Korea, but Kay Seok of Human Rights Watch is a bright light in this dreary landscape. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Seok finds the regime’s misappropriation of its resources on a Kimjongilia flower festival to be “outrageous” at a time when “North Koreans may face the worst food shortage since a famine claimed a million lives in the 1990s.” But if that is so — and most recent predictions of large-scale famine in North Korea, including mine, have been wrong — then how does Seok justify what follows: a call for the resumption of food aid that the donors don’t know will feed those who need it most?
Seok answers the obvious question by stating, a bit sheepishly, that “there is some precedent for meaningful, if not optimal, monitoring of food aid.” By setting the bar as low as this, Seok manages to make an arguably true statement, but the “meaningful” monitoring was short-lived, required very hard bargaining, and lasted no longer than the aid’s overall usefulness to the regime itself. Then, in late 2005, the regime slashed the program by two-thirds. Since then, of course, it has evicted American food aid workers and refused a large offer of U.S. government food aid.
More broadly, Seok cannot argue — even with the best of intentions — against a long history of North Korea resisting not only monitoring, but the aid itself. As Seok seems to acknowledge, food is cheaper that a lot of the other things North Korea prefers to buy with its money. North Korea has the means to feed its people; it’s the will that’s lacking:
The markets in North Korea have finally stabilized due to increased food rations which have gone up by 80% nationwide, according to a source on April 2. Except for those who work at farms, 80% of North Korean citizens receive rations, 600g for adults and 300g for students. Given farmers take up 20-30% of the population, 60% of the population is receiving rations.
This is unprecedented; such distributions have not been handed out since the Arduous March.
Our source stated that rations have been distributed since February 16 in almost all areas, including Pyongyang, Shin-ui-ju, Sariwon, Musan, and Chungjin. Additionally, the rations will be distributed at least until Kim Il-Sung’s Birthday on April 15, and the price of food will not rise for a month. The source stated that the food seems to have come from Storage #2 in order to support the public since the failed currency reform, which has caused famine in many parts of the country.
The price of food has dropped since the distribution of rations. On April 2, the rice price was 300g per kg. On April 1, rice was 280Won per kg in Pyongyang. Compared to the rice price on March 8 which was at 1,300 won, the rice price fell by 70%. Corn price has also stabilized at 120-150 Won per kg. [Open News]
No one knows if this will last, of course. Sadly, the regime’s will to feed the people is a function of its perception that the lack of food threatens the stability of the regime (Seok also draws this link). It probably isn’t coincidental that the outpouring of rations coincides with reports of rising discontent. In that case, might the regime be more inclined to feed its people if the people were more politically empowered to resist and destabilize the regime? And if North Korea lacks the will to feed its own people (the better to buy their allegiance), why would it let us feed them?
Regular readers of this site know that I’ve long been supportive, in principle, of giving food aid. Nothing that caused the misery of the North Korean people is their fault, after all, and monitored food aid is one of the few potentially effective means of “engagement” I can imagine. But the more time passes, the more convinced I become that food aid has little impact on North Korea’s food situation anyway, at least in comparison to markets.
Posted by Joshua on April 22, 2010 at 8:24 pm · Filed under Anju Links
Professor Sung-Yoon Lee, writing a lengthy Outlook piece for the American Enterprise Institute, predicts that history will be unkind to Kim Dae Jung (and if you read Don Kirk’s book, already is to a degree). I haven’t read the whole thing yet, but Lee is an all-time OFK favorite, and I’ve read enough to see that it’s up to Lee’s high standards of writing. What’s more, this article has fired up spittle-flecked fulmination from a lot of the right people — that is, people who are no doubt feeling the raw wound of having been discredited by the regime whose crimes they overlooked for so long. (It may be that Lee is less easily dismissed as a harmless crank than I am; to be thought of as dangerous is a high compliment I do not enjoy, sadly …). Lee’s argument is summarized thusly:
* The Sunshine Policy, an effort to engage North Korea initially implemented under South Korean president Kim Dae Jung, appears increasingly ineffective in light of North Korea’s continued nuclear threat and oppression of its people.
* Despite his work for human rights in South Korea, Kim Dae Jung chose not to address grievous human rights violations in the North in any meaningful way.
* In light of Kim Dae Jung’s failure to fight for basic human rights for North Koreans, future generations of Koreans are likely to see Kim Dae Jung and his Sunshine Policy in an increasingly negative light.
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Brian Myers catches us up on the latest North Korean propaganda messages.
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Aidan Foster-Carter smells a cover-up of North Korea’s role in the Cheonan Incident. I think that conclusion is premature, but Foster’s piece is very interesting and well worth a read nonetheless.
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Claudia Rosett talks about Bureau 39, sanctions, and nukes.
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